The Top Five Sites For Evaluating Your Hurricane Risks

Understanding your risks relative to an uncertain future usually involves some type of model. When it comes to uncertainty, forecasts, and developing an understanding of my risks, I have found these publicly available sites as the most helpful to me during hurricane season:

#1 https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ because NOAA is the best source of data and the updates are the most timely interpretations of the most current data.

#2 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ because Levi Cowan is simply the best at his trade.

#3 http://trackthetropics.com/ because just about every piece of data and every model, including all of the spaghetti models, are quickly accessible here.

#4 https://www.wunderground.com/ because it was the best source of locally connected weather information during the early 2000s when I was racing sailboats for leisure and helping clients respond to storms as part of the business. I think it is still the best commercial product, even though I am still in denial that the Weather Channel now owns it.

#5 https://fiman.nc.gov/ because all risk is personal and local flood inundation impacts me in many ways. I am hoping South Carolina soon gets a site as powerful as the one in North Carolina.

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Risks, Forecasting, And Lessons From Predicting The Weather

Tropical Tidbits is the best source of forecasting of uncertainties and risks associated with major storm events. The lesson learned is that an analysis is only as good as the analyst. At Tropical Tidbits, that analyst is Levi Cowan.

“All models are wrong, but some are useful” is a useless quote provided by bad consultants. The truth is that we pay good money for models and the forecasts associated with them, and most are useful if we listen to the right forecasters.

See Levi Cowan’s analysis of Hurricane Laura as it was forming over Cuba on Monday and compare it to what happened on Thursday morning. Skip to time stamp 10:00 if you want to focus on just the models behind the forecast. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2020/08/24/laura-a-serious-threat-to-texas-and-louisiana-marco-quickly-decaying/ A couple of lessons to be underscored from this: Model(s) is plural. A single model using point estimates for input parameters is not sufficient for forecasting any type of uncertain future. Two primary approaches are available. The first develop multiple independent models – preferably from different modelers - and find the commonalities of the predictions (generally described as ensemble models). The second is to use a probabilistic method using statistical distributions for input parameters and Monte Carlo simulations to produce a cone of uncertainty for the forecast.

Post-mortems of our forecasts are essential for learning and improvement. Weather forecasting has become quite good over the past few decades because of the focus on after-event analysis or forecasting post-mortems. The same can be said in the aerospace sector and nuclear sector where time and money are spent to understand the difference between what was forecasted and what actually happened.

Every industry has a range of certainty associated with its forecasts. Forecast accuracy is about two days in weather forecasting for the landfall location of major storms (although the forecasts are not as good for the actual wind speed and still worse for rain volume). Much of the accuracy of the landfall location is related to the physical science of the event and the amount of data that the industry collects on which to base its models. There is a direct relationship between forecast quality and the amount of data collected within an industry, at least when it comes to physical sciences.

These are some things to consider the next time you seek advice in a risky situation, build a model yourself, or hire a consultant to forecast an uncertain future for you. An analysis is only as good as the analyst. Levi Cowan is a reminder of that fact every time you see a tropical storm forming.

Show Me The Money: Continuity of Operations and Disaster Cost Recovery

An organization’s response following a disaster may last only a few weeks, but the post-disaster cost recovery process may go on for years. Fulfilling your primary mission during a crisis is the subject of a Continuity of Operations Plan (COOP); avoiding financial stress (or failure) is part of a separate but overlapping effort, Disaster Cost Recovery.

COOP is the effort by organizations to ensure that their primary mission and essential functions are performed during a wide range of emergencies, including but not limited to natural disasters.

1. Essential Functions

2. Orders of Succession and Delegations of Authority (internal resources)

3. Devolution of Control and Direction (to external resources)

4. Continuity Facilities Continuity Communications

5. Vital Records Management

6. Human Capital

7. Tests, Training, and Exercises

8. Reconstitution (return to normal)

An organization’s success in timely recouping disaster-related expenses is greatly impacted by a centralized effort to “follow the money.” Successful, timely Disaster Cost Recovery requires reverse-engineering the documentation that FEMA, state relief agencies, and private insurance companies need related to hours, operating expenses, and contracted services to quickly process your claim.

Some key aspects include:

1. Detailed asset inventory, including pictures and in-service/out-of-service status

2. Asset replacement value, which may not be consistent with existing accounting information or insurance declarations

3. Assignment of work orders and purchase orders against assets

4. Documented, properly contracted mutual aid agreements with other agencies or emergency response contractors

5. Properly contracted and performed Damage Assessment Reports

The Disaster Cost Recovery process involves personnel from nearly every department of an organization, including accounting, purchasing, risk management, operations, maintenance, engineering, environmental, information systems, and administration. It involves consultants and contractors, too.

COOP and Disaster Cost Recovery are complex (meaning they have many parts) but are not necessarily difficult. Structure, discipline, and well-developed business processes are essential. COVID-19 impacts are a reminder that such efforts are ever-changing and need to be updated and maintained.

Hurricane season in the US Southeast will be peaking over the next month. There is no time to develop new plans at this point; however, there is still time to review the basics and update fundamental aspects such as work order structures, emergency contracts, and mutual assistance agreements.